Trinkets friend
Sudden Buggery
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Posted - 2015.03.04 03:01:49 -
[1] - Quote
You see, the problem with Fozzie is he takes a trend and, even though the dev blog and Phoebe both occur after the trend is already in its full swing, extrapolates that the trend was caused post-facto by the thing he hopes to see as resulting from the patches, ipso facto he searches for a conclusion and finds the one he was looking for.
For example the graph of 2 week rolling-average of ISK lost in nullsec PVP shows a trend - which began half a period before the graph shows it beginning - which got in train n August of 2014. The dev blog was released in October 2014 and Phoebe in november.
The trend, which in stockbroking terminology (i used to be a Technician, so pity me) is an upward channel, lasts 4 months, then breaks over the Christmas-new Year break. Technicians amongst you will realise there's a seasonality at work here but technics-wise the channel get broken and forms a pennant. The pennant is forming and coming to a break point in the next month or two; upward pennants like this can either break upwards or downwards.
The same pennant pattern is apparent in the total number of nullsec kills which in this unitless void, also matches a half-pennant forming in nullsec jumps (though this suggests the correction will be downwards when the pattern breaks).
The graph of capital ship deaths is interesting, as it shows mortality has increased and is holding at a higher base level than pre-Phoebe. The question is why - is it more capitals getting caught on gate or with access to the numbers, could one re-base it or correct for the nullsec population (ie; is a slight increase in population causing more caps to undock and hence die), or correct it for capital gate jumps, capital jumps, damage dealt by capitals to structures, or indeed capital damage dealt to rats.
My analysis of the nullsec population is that it's probably a good simulant for wormhole population (and my experiences picking up bittervets from nullsec during Phoebe's deployment). The population increased as players subbed up, loaded all their crap into their suitcase carriers, and the population crashes as people evacuate nullsec. Then a bunch join the HERO Coalition, and the population re-establishes itself.
There was also probably an element, over the new year period, of ISBoxing toons being un-subbed or leaving nullsec en-masse, to be flogged off on the forums - a process still continuing to this day as adjudged by a quick trawl of the IS Boxer bazaar yesterday.
For wormholes, same deal. People table flipped at the Hyperion changes, tossed their babies out with the bathwater, and silently crawled back into a big blobby C5 bear corp without making a big hooplah about it once they got sick of playing grab-ass with level 4 rats.
Prolapse. Taking fights since 2014.
Sudden Buggery. Got duumb? Hola, Batmanuel!
http://www.localectomy.blogspot.com.au
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